(Image Source: Reflektive)
“Let’s promote them—they’re great at their job.”
It’s the most common line in a performance review turned promotion conversation. On the surface, rewarding your best performers with more responsibility seems logical.
Except it’s the fastest way to break your leadership pipeline.
Becoming a manager isn’t a step up. It’s a career shift. And when we assume that high performance equates to leadership potential, we risk compromising team culture and long-term success.
Where Leadership Fails: The Silent Crisis in First-Time Management
Let’s get to the uncomfortable truth: 60% of new managers fail in the first two years.
Not because they’re incompetent. Not because they’re unwilling. But they were never assessed for leadership to begin with.
They were promoted based on performance. And performance, while valuable, isn’t predictive of people leadership.
The Invisible Fallout: What Happens When You Get It Wrong
A misaligned first-time manager doesn’t cause a dramatic collapse. The damage is subtle. Slow. And cumulative:
- Engagement quietly dips
- High performers leave without much noise
- Teams lose trust in leadership
- Burnout increases while accountability decreases
This is invisible leakage. It doesn’t show up in quarterly reports, but over 18 months, it becomes undeniable.
Bias, Assumptions, and the Promotion Problem
The other elephant in the room? Bias.
We often promote those who appear to be leaders, rather than those who demonstrate readiness for it. That might mean:
- The loudest voice in the room
- The most polished communicator
- The one who reminds us of ourselves
Without objective data, promotions are vulnerable to affinity bias and status quo thinking. This not only hurts equity in leadership but also the business.
What Google’s Project Oxygen Got Right
In 2008, Google launched an internal research initiative called Project Oxygen to identify what makes great managers.
The top attributes weren’t what you’d expect:
- Coaching and support
- Psychological safety
- Clear communication
- Empowerment and trust
Notice what’s missing? Technical brilliance. Subject matter expertise. Tenure.
People don’t leave bad jobs. They leave bad managers. And bad managers are often good employees who have been promoted into a role for which they are not well-suited.
What We’re Still Missing Today
Despite research and cautionary tales, many organisations still:
- Lack of structured promotion frameworks
- Skip readiness assessments
- Assume leadership is “figure-it-out” territory
It’s not. It’s measurable. And it should be measured before a team is handed over.
Want to promote with purpose?
Request a demo to see how Oxygen helps you build stronger, more human leadership pipelines, starting from the first step.